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For a while there, it seemed like South Texas’ weather setting had somehow gotten permanently stuck on hotter/drier-than-normal.

It’s unstuck now and change is coming — soggier, cooler change.

That’s according to the National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley office, which released its latest three-month outlook on Monday.

“After a brutally hot and frequently dry late June through September 2026, a wetter-than-normal outlook is anticipated during the October-December 2026 period,” said NWS meteorologists.

“Torrential rains and the potential for significant flooding is our primary concern, especially in October and November when very efficient tropical moisture from the eastern tropical/subtropical Pacific and southern Gulf gets into the mix.”

The NWS said the Valley and perhaps deep South Texas ranchlands potentially may see significant flash flooding due to runoff caused by massive rainfall, itself caused to some extent by deep tropical moisture flowing into the region from the Pacific and the Gulf and the recurvature of Pacific cyclone remnants pushing into the region.

Then there’s the Central American Gyre, a huge cyclonic loop that happens during the May-November rainy season, with the potential to spin up substantial tropical development in the Pacific and Atlantic, the NWS said.

Runoff is especially bad after extended hot/dry periods because the ground is nearly impermeable and unable to absorb water like it would during periods of occasional steady rain, according to meteorologists.

Meanwhile, after another month of blisteringly hot and mostly rain-free conditions producing extremely high evaporation rates, drought has again tightened its grip on most of the area, the NWS said, noting that most of the Valley was under Severe to Exceptional Drought as of late September, though relief is on the way.

“With the weather pattern expected to become wetter over the next few months, drought conditions are expected to improve across the region, and could be removed altogether if wetter to much wetter-than-average months are strung together,” meteorologists said.

More showers and thunderstorms will finally cool things down, especially compared to the record or near-record hot summer months, though meteorologists said chances for a warmer or cooler than normal, or normal temperatures pattern October-December are considered a toss up.

“It’s also worth noting that October and November are our two fastest cooling months, where the average temps drop off rather substantially from the beginning of the month to the end of the month, a drop-off of 7-8 degrees each month,” the NWS said.

Cool fronts and cold fronts are expected to become more pronounced during the three-month period, leading to more dangerous coastal conditions in the form of tidal run-up, rough/high surf and marine hazards to vessels — even large vessels, according to meteorologists.

“One or two Texas Gulf Lows may form behind these fronts along the lower Texas coast, increasing strong northerly winds … and bringing rain with the chill, with temperatures potentially down in the low to mid-40s and wind chills between 30 and 35,” they said.

Unfortunately, none of this is going to improve the reservoir water-storage picture much in the short term, the NWS said, predicting “continued record to near-record low combined storage levels at Amistad and Falcon international Reservoirs, despite expected improvements due to a wetter than normal pattern.”

“Water reservoir improvements will come with the coming rains, but confidence still remains high (80% give or take) that total combined storage at Amistad and Falcon will remain at or near record lows through at least December,” according to the outlook. “Despite improvements in storage levels expected with the rains to come at Amistad and Falcon, a water supply crisis will continue for some and could still grow for others.”