Write a new simple attractive title based on the title from Commentary: Trump policies costing GOP Hispanic support | Opinion and dont use quote marks

In 2024, Hispanic voters gave President Donald Trump an unexpected boost. In 2026, his policies are driving them back to their Democratic roots.

That reversal is one of the key factors behind the increasing consensus that the Democrats will regain control of the House — and possibly the Senate — in November’s midterm elections.

A major reason is widespread Hispanic opposition to the heavy-handed way the Trump administration has carried out its immigration policies, arresting and deporting thousands who have committed no crimes besides being in the country illegally.

Last week, that opposition became personified when one of the country’s most prominent Hispanic Republican officeholders, three-term Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, dramatically broke with Trump, declaring that “some of your immigration efforts have gone too far.

“The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today,” she said, noting that half of the 50,000 persons detained in July had “no criminal record.”

Her Miami district, which Trump won in 2024 with 57% and she carried by 20 points, had not been rated as one in danger of going Democratic, and Trump has endorsed her re-election.

But three recent Democratic polls showed the race has become basically a toss-up, and her decision to voice the widespread concerns of the Hispanic community was a sign their disaffection may be even greater than previously believed.

Nationally, polls show that Democratic strength among Hispanics has rebounded to the 20-point-plus levels of 2020 and 2022 from Kamala Harris’ single digit 2024 advantage over Trump.

In a bipartisan poll this spring for BSP Research/UnidosUS, a quarter of 2024 Trump voters said that, if they had to do it again, they would not vote for him.

Besides Trump’s immigration policies, Hispanic voters also criticize his handling of the economy. In the recent New York Times/Siena poll, just 26% of Hispanics approved of Trump’s immigration policies, and only 18% approved of his economic policies, both well under his overall voter support.

This disaffection has become a special problem for Republicans in the three large Sun Belt states with substantial Hispanic populations — Florida, Texas and California. Polls show that the likelihood of a strong Hispanic Democratic vote is undercutting the redistricting strategy that centered on maintaining in redrawn districts the GOP support for Hispanics that Trump attracted in 2024.

In Texas, polls show that Democrats now seem likely to hold at least two of the five redrawn districts and that a third is a tossup. In Florida, Democrats are likely to keep two of the four new GOP-leaning districts. And in California, Hispanic votes are helping to ensure the Democrats win all five districts their party redrew to counter the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting in Texas and Florida.

Fearful of losing the House, the Republicans changed the 2026 congressional battlefield by creating new GOP-majority districts wherever they could.

At the behest of Trump’s White House, the Republicans who control the governorships and legislatures of Texas and Florida called special sessions to redraw their congressional districts, a process that normally only occurs after the census at the start of a decade.

In Texas, GOP lawmakers made more Republican the predominantly Hispanic Rio Grande Valley districts represented by conservative Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez – both of which Trump carried by single digits. They also created a new Republican-leaning, Hispanic-plurality district in the San Antonio area, plus two safely Republican seats in the Dallas and Houston areas.

But a recent poll, conducted for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and Univision, showed that Texas Hispanics, who backed Trump in 2024 by 10 points, now favor Democratic statewide candidates by 2-to-1 margins.

An oversample of Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas showed a double-digit Democratic lead. Not only are both Cuellar and Gonzalez now favored, but polls indicate Democrats may win a third Valley seat — against GOP Rep. Monica de La Cruz — and the new San Antonio seat.

In Florida, the one new district where the Hispanic vote could be a factor is in the Fort Lauderdale area, where Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is seeking re-election. It’s 20% Hispanic.

In California, two of the five revised districts are heavily Hispanic, a newly Democratic-leaning district in the San Diego area now represented by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa and a closely divided Bakersfield area seat represented by Republican Rep. David Valadao, the closest to a toss-up on the new map.

Hispanic voters could also play a role elsewhere in November. Colorado’s 8th district, which includes Denver’s northern suburbs, is about 30% Hispanic. Though now represented by Republican Rep. Gabe Evans, Harris narrowly won it in 2024 and it’s considered a potential Democratic gain in 2026.

In Arizona, the Hispanic vote could play a role in two Arizona races currently considered toss-ups, the open northeast Phoenix-area 1st district, whose Republican congressman ran unsuccessfully for governor, and the Tucson-area 6th District, represented by Republican Juan Ciscomani.

For the past half-century, Republicans have repeatedly contended they would benefit from the nation’s growing Hispanic population because of the natural affinity between their policies and the generally conservative lifestyles of most American Hispanics. Two Republican presidents, George W. Bush and Trump, made inroads into the Democrats’ Hispanic support.

But once again, through their tone-deaf policies, the GOP has squandered that support. It’s likely to pay in November.