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An intense storm – Hurricane Polo – is spinning in the eastern Pacific Ocean, just off the coast of the Mexican state of Guerrero, near Acapulco.
After becoming a hurricane on Monday, Polo rapidly intensified thereafter. Just a little more than 24 hours later on Tuesday afternoon, Polo peaked as an intense Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 180 mph. Its central pressure had dropped to 892 millibars, which ranks as the second-most intense hurricane ever in the eastern Pacific, behind Hurricane Patricia in 2015.
However, Polo has started to weaken over the past 18 hours: It is now down to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph. The weakening has been largely because it has remained nearly stationary, about 175 miles south of the Mexican coastline. As it sits over the same spot, ocean temperatures beneath the storm become cooler, which then cause the hurricane to lose some of its strength and organization.
Hurricane Polo is also fewer than 800 miles from the Rio Grande Valley. Whenever hurricanes form in this area, they’re worth monitoring because they often bring at least some atmospheric moisture into Texas. Will that happen this time around? Here’s a close look at the storm’s track and how it could affect the Lone Star State.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s forecast, Polo is expected to drift westward through Wednesday afternoon and evening, before finally picking up forward speed as it continues west, away from the coast.
However, by the weekend, the storm is expected to start turning north, into northwestern Mexico. Although the storm is projected to weaken to a Category 2 storm by late Sunday and into Monday, it could still bring intense rainfall and high winds to Baja California.
Models show that the center of the hurricane may stall out, just off of the coastline. However, even as it does so, some of its moisture will be pulled eastward, combining with a potentially strong system of low air pressure moving east over the Rocky Mountains.
The low pressure, along with leftover tropical moisture from Polo, could bring higher rain chances into Texas by the middle of next week. Locally in San Antonio, the highest rain chances could be from late Tuesday and into early Wednesday, although the exact timing could still shift significantly.
Exact rainfall totals remain uncertain, but multiple inches of rain are possible for at least parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Texas as Polo’s moisture moves inland. Some isolated flooding may also be possible.
The low pressure also might bring South Texas its most significant cold front of the season so far. Weather models project the front moving through San Antonio by Wednesday morning or afternoon, forcing temperatures to noticeably cooler levels.
High temperatures by Wednesday or Thursday next week could fall into the 80s, while low temperatures could reach into the 60s for the first time since late May.
However, because this weather system is still likely a week away, significant changes to the forecast are still possible. Be sure to stay with expressnews.com/weather for daily updates as the forecast evolves.
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