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Rain Returns Briefly, Then a Sharp Warm-Up Across Texas
After this past weekend’s cold front made its presence known, Texas weather is flipping the script once again. A short-lived period of rain and thunderstorms will affect parts of the state through midweek, followed by a pronounced warming trend that looks increasingly likely to carry us straight into a very warm Christmas.
This is not a severe weather setup, but it is the most meaningful rain opportunity many Texans will see for several days.
Midweek Rain and Thunderstorm Chances
Clouds are holding tough across much of eastern Texas today, and that sets the stage for rain chances to increase tonight and into Wednesday.
Areas with the best chance of rain include:
- Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country
- South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
- The Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains
- Southeast Texas and the Golden Triangle
- Portions of East Texas
Showers will become more widespread overnight, with thunderstorms increasing Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, especially near the Texas Gulf Coast and Coastal Bend. Some storms may produce locally heavy rain and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
At this time, severe storms are not expected. The primary hazards will be lightning and brief heavy downpours.
Rain chances will end from west to east Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Rainfall Totals: Coastal Areas Favored
Forecast rainfall totals have increased compared to earlier outlooks.
- Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains: 0.75 to over 1 inch possible
- Victoria area: Up to around 1 inch
- Southeast Texas and the Golden Triangle: 0.10 to 0.50 inches
- Rio Grande Valley: Light to locally moderate rainfall, depending on storm coverage
This midweek system represents the best and most likely chance of rain across Texas for the next several days.
Lightning Safety Reminder
While storms should remain below severe levels, lightning is a real concern.
If you hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move indoors immediately and avoid open areas until storms pass.
Fire Weather Outlook
Thanks to recent moisture and cloud cover, fire weather conditions will remain generally low through Wednesday.
However, as temperatures rise and humidity drops later this week, fire danger is expected to increase across:
- The Big Country
- Concho Valley
- North Texas
- Parts of the Hill Country
Fire weather concerns may become more elevated heading into Friday and Saturday.
Pattern Shift: Quiet but Much Warmer
Once the midweek disturbance exits, the jet stream lifts north and becomes more zonal. This places Texas under a broad area of high pressure.
The result:
- Fewer rain chances
- Increasing sunshine
- Rapid warming statewide
By late week and into the weekend, temperatures will surge well above average for mid-December.
Temperature Outlook: From Mild to Near-Record Warmth
- Wednesday–Thursday: Highs mainly in the 60s and 70s, with 80s returning to South Texas
- Friday: Widespread 60s and 70s, including the Panhandle
- Saturday: Highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s possible across much of Texas
Some locations may flirt with record highs as we head toward the weekend.
Christmas Week Outlook: Warm and Mostly Dry
Climate Prediction Center outlooks continue to favor:
- Above-average temperatures statewide
- Below-average precipitation
At this point, Christmas Day temperatures are most likely to range:
- Upper 50s to low 60s in the northern Panhandle
- 70s across much of Central and East Texas
- Upper 70s to 80s in South Texas
While forecasts will continue to evolve, confidence is increasing that this will be one of the warmer Christmas periods Texas has seen in recent years.
Bottom Line
- Rain and thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday, mainly east and south
- Locally heavy rain and lightning possible near the coast
- Drying out late week
- Rapid warming trend with near-record warmth possible
- A warm, dry Christmas increasingly likely
Stay weather-aware over the next 24–36 hours, especially if storms move through your area, and be sure to track conditions using the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.
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