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It is a moisture-wicking shirt kind of day across Texas.
Dangerous heat and humidity are already in place across a large part of the state, and temperatures will only get worse through the afternoon. At the same time, storm chances are returning, and a few storms may get rowdy later today and tonight.
Arthur’s remnants are now well east of Texas, producing significant flooding and tornado issues across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. For Texas, Arthur is done.
That does not mean our weather is quiet. You can watch our full video update below for more information.
Dangerous heat and humidity today
Temperatures are already well into the 80s and 90s across much of Texas, with some areas climbing quickly toward triple digits.
The Panhandle is the exception. A cool front has pushed south and brought less obnoxiously hot air into places like Pampa and Amarillo, where temperatures have been much more comfortable compared to the rest of the state.
Everyone else? Not so lucky.
The humidity is doing what humidity does best: making the air feel disgusting. Actual air temperatures may be a little lower than they would be on a bone-dry hot day, but the heat index is the real problem.
Parts of South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley may see heat index values approach or exceed 120 degrees today.
That is dangerous heat. That is not just “summer in Texas.”
When humidity is that high, your body has a harder time cooling itself. Sweat does not evaporate efficiently, and heat stress can sneak up fast if you are working outside, practicing sports, chasing kids around, or stuck without good air conditioning.
Storms may get rowdy later today and tonight
Storms may develop later this afternoon and tonight across parts of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Texoma, the Hill Country, and nearby areas.
The severe weather risk may be upgraded in later updates if storms look more organized.
With temperatures near or above 100 degrees in parts of the risk area, any storms that can develop may shove out a lot of wind. Some gusts could exceed 70 mph.
Main storm threats today and tonight include:
- Damaging wind gusts over 70 mph
- Hail
- Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
- Locally heavy rain
- Localized flash flooding
This is not an “everyone gets storms” forecast. Most folks will probably miss out today.
But if a storm develops over your area, it may hit hard.
Localized flooding is still possible
The tropical system is gone from Texas, but the tropical moisture did not magically disappear.
If you have stepped outside today, you already know that.
With so much moisture still in place, slow-moving storms may dump a lot of rain over small areas. That means localized flooding will remain possible, especially where storms sit over the same spot or move over areas that have already had plenty of rain recently.
A few storms may drop several inches of rain in a short period of time.
That does not mean widespread flooding is expected everywhere. It means if you end up under one of the heavier storms, street flooding, low-water crossing issues, and poor-drainage flooding may develop quickly.

Friday brings more storm chances
Storm chances continue Friday and Friday night across a larger part of Texas.
Areas with at least some storm potential include North Texas, Central Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, South Central Texas, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Big Country, Concho Valley, and nearby areas.
The Weather Prediction Center highlights a flash flooding risk Friday across a broad portion of Texas, including North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, Central Texas, South Central Texas, the Edwards Plateau, the Hill Country, the Concho Valley, and the Big Country.
The risk will be more miss than hit, but scattered flash flood warnings are possible where storms repeat or slow down.
Soils are wetter than usual in many spots, and it will not take as much rain to cause problems compared to a dry pattern.
Severe storm risk Friday
Friday may also bring a risk of localized damaging winds across parts of North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas.
That risk may shift or expand as newer data comes in.
This is summer in Texas. When it is hot, humid, and unstable, storms can produce strong outflow winds even without a classic springtime severe weather setup.
Hail is possible too, though the hail threat may be somewhat limited by how hot the lower atmosphere is. Still, if storms grow tall enough, hail can survive the trip down.
Bottom line: storms Friday may not hit everyone, but the stronger ones may produce wind, hail, lightning, heavy rain, and localized flooding.
Storm chances continue Saturday
Saturday keeps at least isolated flash flooding potential across the southeastern half of Texas.
That does not mean Saturday is a washout. It means scattered storms may continue, and any storm that develops in this humid air mass may produce heavy rain.
Areas along and east of Interstate 35, South Central Texas, Central Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex should keep an eye on storm chances.
Lightning will also be a concern for outdoor plans.
If you are heading to lakes, parks, ball fields, outdoor events, or the coast this weekend, keep radar nearby. Storm outflow winds can hit fast and turn lakes into a mess in a hurry.
Possible summer storm train next week
Looking ahead, Texas may not be done with storms after the weekend.
The upper-air pattern may start shifting into a north-to-northwesterly flow across the state as a heat dome sets up over the southwestern United States.
That kind of setup can bring thunderstorm complexes south out of Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and the Plains into Texas.
If that pattern takes hold, we may start tracking storms almost every night next week.
This would not be a “big tornado outbreak” kind of pattern based on what we see right now. This would be more of a summer storm-train setup with:
- Gusty winds
- Frequent lightning
- Locally heavy rain
- Isolated flooding
- Some hail
The upside? Maybe it keeps parts of Texas from baking at 105 degrees every single day.
Maybe.
Rainfall forecast through early next week
Rain chances have increased compared to previous forecasts.
Through early Tuesday, parts of the Big Country, North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and the ArkLaTex may pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher totals possible.
Parts of the Hill Country, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, Edwards Plateau, Panhandle, Permian Basin, and Big Bend may also see scattered rainfall.
Not everyone gets rain. Some folks will get missed.
But with all the moisture in place, any storm can produce a quick inch or two of rain. Regional rainfall forecasts smooth things out, and local totals can easily end up higher than what the broad map shows.
Heat today into the weekend
Today’s temperatures are ugly.
Forecast highs include around 109 to 111 degrees near San Angelo and Tom Green County, 107 in Abilene, 109 in Big Spring, 107 in Midland, 105 near Fort Stockton and Del Rio, and triple digits across much of West Texas, the Big Bend, South Texas, and parts of the I-35 corridor.
DFW may climb into the upper 90s. Austin and San Antonio may reach around 100 degrees. McAllen may reach near 102 degrees, but the heat index could approach or exceed 120 degrees.
Tonight will not bring much relief for many Texans. Lows may stay in the 80s across the southeastern half of the state, with plenty of humidity left behind.
Friday may be a little less obnoxiously hot for some areas, especially across the northern third of Texas, but it will still be humid.
Saturday and Sunday keep the summer pattern going, with 90s and triple digits across much of the state. Heat index values will still run well above the actual air temperature in many areas.
Heat safety matters
This kind of heat can get people in trouble quickly.
Practical reminders:
- Drink water before you feel thirsty.
- Take breaks if working outside.
- Avoid the worst heat of the afternoon if possible.
- Check on older neighbors and vulnerable family members.
- Bring pets inside or provide shade and water.
- Watch pavement temperatures for pets.
- Never leave kids or pets in vehicles.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
If you are outside and start feeling dizzy, weak, confused, nauseous, or stop sweating despite the heat, take that seriously.
Storm safety reminders
Storms over the next few days may be scattered, but stronger ones may be dangerous.
Keep these in mind:
- Lightning is frightening.
- When thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
- Stay off lakes when storms are nearby.
- Sudden outflow winds can make water dangerous fast.
- Do not drive into flooded roads.
- Report hail, wind damage, flooding, and road issues when safe.
- Have radar nearby if you have outdoor plans.
If you are on a lake this weekend, keep an eye on the sky. Gusty outflow winds can arrive well ahead of rain and make conditions dangerous quickly.
Bottom line
Arthur is done for Texas, but our weather is not quiet.
Dangerous heat and humidity are in place today across much of the state, with heat index values possibly exceeding 120 degrees in parts of South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Storms may develop later today and tonight across parts of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Texoma, the Hill Country, and nearby areas. A few storms may become severe with damaging winds over 70 mph, hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain.
Friday into Saturday brings more scattered storm chances across a larger part of Texas, with localized flash flooding possible where storms repeat or slow down.
Next week may bring a summer storm-train pattern, with thunderstorm complexes moving south into Texas from the Plains.
Not everyone gets storms. But where storms do develop, they may be rowdy.
Helpful Links
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also get local forecasts, alerts, radar, daily Texas Weather Roundups, and live coverage in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.
The 24/7 Texas Storm Chasers live weather stream is available on YouTube, in the Texas Storm Chasers app under the articles tab, and on the homepage of TexasStormChasers.com.
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