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Seeing me on a Sunday usually means we have something worth talking about.
Unfortunately, that is the case today.
Flooding potential is increasing across Texas over the next several days. This is not a “one storm and done” setup. We are dealing with deep tropical moisture, a weak southward-moving front, repeated rounds of storms, and the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina trying to send even more moisture toward Texas.
That combination can squeeze out a lot of rain.
Some of it will be beneficial. Some of it may become a problem.
The biggest concern is not that every square inch of Texas floods. That is not how this works. The concern is that a few areas may get hammered by repeated storms or slow-moving heavy rain bands, and those areas could end up with serious flooding issues.
Flood Watch covers a large part of Texas
The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for a large part of Texas, including 112 counties as of this update.
That includes portions of the Hill Country, Central Texas, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, South Texas, the Coastal Bend, the Rio Grande Plains, the Rio Grande Valley, the Brazos Valley, and nearby areas.
Cities and towns in or near the watch area include Del Rio, Kerrville, Fredericksburg, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Austin, Georgetown, Round Rock, Temple, Belton, Bryan, College Station, Houston, Victoria, Port Aransas, Galveston, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Eagle Pass, McAllen, Brownsville, and many surrounding communities.
Beaumont, Lufkin, and nearby areas may eventually need to be added or covered by additional flood products as this setup evolves.
Storms are already increasing
As of this Sunday update, storms were already underway across East Texas, the Piney Woods, the Golden Triangle, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, South Central Texas, San Antonio, Bexar County, the Rio Grande Plains, South Texas, West Texas, and the Big Bend.
The southeastern three-quarters of Texas is hot, humid, and loaded with moisture. That is why storms can produce very heavy rain in a short period of time.
Rainfall rates may exceed 2 inches per hour in the strongest downpours. In a few spots, rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible.
That is the kind of rain that overwhelms streets, low-water crossings, creeks, streams, and poor-drainage areas quickly.
Tonight into Monday morning is a problem window
One of the first periods we need to watch closely is tonight into early Monday morning.
A weak southward-moving front, and no, it is not going to feel like a real cool front for most folks, may help focus a band of heavy thunderstorms somewhere across Central Texas, the eastern Hill Country, or South Central Texas.
That band could set up near Interstate 35. It could set up closer to Highway 281. We do not know the exact placement yet.
Wherever it sets up, storms may sit or repeatedly move over the same areas.
That is how we get into trouble.
A few spots could pick up 5 to 9 inches of rain in only a few hours if storms train or stall. That will not happen to everyone. It may only happen to a few unlucky communities. But where it happens, flooding could become serious quickly.
If that band sets up over the eastern Hill Country, rapid rises on creeks and streams will be a major concern. If it sets up along the I-35 corridor, urban flash flooding could become a problem in a hurry.
That includes roads, low-water crossings, poor-drainage neighborhoods, underpasses, and creeks that respond quickly.
Monday and Tuesday bring more rounds
We are not done after tonight.
More rounds of showers and storms are expected Monday into Tuesday across the southeastern half of Texas. That includes areas from Del Rio to Austin, San Antonio, Bryan/College Station, Lufkin, Houston, Beaumont, and surrounding regions.
The issue is repetition.
The first round wets the ground. The second round has less room to soak in. By the third round, it may not take much additional rain to create flooding problems.
That is why this setup deserves more attention than a typical summer thunderstorm day.
Not every storm will be severe. This is not mainly a hail and tornado setup. This is a heavy rain and flooding setup, with lightning and gusty winds also in the mix.
Tropical moisture from Cristina adds another problem
Now let’s add another ingredient to the forecast mess.
The remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina have been moving across Mexico. That system has helped send deep tropical moisture northward into Texas, which is one reason our atmosphere is so loaded right now.
Those remnants are expected to move toward the northwestern Gulf this week. There is now at least a non-zero chance the disturbance could become a little more organized near the Texas coast.
The National Hurricane Center has given the system a chance to become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.
Here is the important part: the name does not matter.
It does not matter much whether this becomes a weak tropical system, a tropical depression, or remains a disorganized blob of tropical moisture. The impact for Texas is the same basic concern.
Heavy rain.
If that moisture hangs near the Texas coast and slowly moves north Tuesday through Friday, we may deal with another multi-day round of very heavy rain along the South Texas coast, Middle Texas coast, Upper Texas coast, and adjacent inland areas.
That includes Brownsville, McAllen, Corpus Christi, Port Aransas, Victoria, Houston, Galveston, Beaumont, Lufkin, and surrounding areas.
Coastal heavy rain threat may last into late week
The coastal rain threat may become more significant Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
This is separate from the heavy rain threat tonight through Tuesday across parts of Central Texas, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and South Texas. That is why the setup is concerning.
We may have one round of flooding issues from storms and the weak front, then another round from coastal tropical moisture later in the week.
The Weather Prediction Center forecast through Friday evening shows the potential for widespread 5 to 10 inches of rain along parts of the Texas coast and Southeast Texas.
That includes parts of the lower Texas coast, Rio Grande Valley, Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Golden Triangle, Southeast Texas, and nearby inland areas.
In these tropical moisture setups, the official forecast is usually a smoothed-out regional average. Some folks get less. A few unlucky spots can get much more.
Localized 12 to 15 inch totals are possible if the heaviest rain bands repeat over the same areas.
That does not mean everyone gets 15 inches of rain. Do not hear what I am not saying.
It means the high-end localized totals may become very problematic where heavy rain bands set up and sit.
Flooding may be localized, but impactful
This setup may not produce widespread flooding everywhere.
That does not mean it is harmless.
Localized flooding can still be a big problem if it happens over the wrong area. A heavy rain band over a river basin, an urban corridor, a flood-prone neighborhood, a low-water crossing, or a campground can cause serious issues fast.
Things to watch over the next several days:
- Low-water crossings
- Poor-drainage streets
- Underpasses
- Creeks and streams
- River gauges
- Lake rises
- Campsites near water
- Flood-prone neighborhoods
- Roads near construction zones
- Areas that get repeated rounds of storms
If water is covering the road, turn around. Do not try to prove something to a puddle. The puddle does not care about your truck payment.
Rainfall totals by region
These numbers will change, but this is the general idea based on the current setup.
The highest rain totals through late week may occur along the Texas coast and Southeast Texas, where widespread 5 to 10 inches are possible and localized 12 to 15 inch amounts cannot be ruled out.
The Rio Grande Valley, Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Golden Triangle, Houston area, Beaumont area, Victoria area, Corpus Christi area, Brownsville area, and adjacent inland regions need to keep a close eye on this.
Across the Hill Country, Central Texas, North Texas, and Northeast Texas, a broad 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible, with locally higher totals where storms train.
The western half of Texas should generally see lighter totals, but thunderstorms in the Panhandle, West Texas, and nearby areas could still produce localized heavier pockets.
Again, do not focus only on the number for your exact backyard. The issue is where storms repeatedly move over the same area.
Flood Watch may need to continue or expand
Flood Watches are already up, and they may need to continue for some areas or expand into others.
The coastal flood/heavy rain concern may last into Thursday or Friday if the tropical moisture system behaves the way some data suggests.
That means this is not a “check the forecast once and move on” situation. The details will change as we see where the heaviest rain bands actually set up.
This is one of those patterns where radar trends matter.
What you should do now
Have a way to receive weather alerts, especially overnight.
Check your local forecast daily. If you live near a creek, river, stream, bayou, low-water crossing, or flood-prone road, pay attention to local conditions and official warnings.
Avoid camping or parking near low-water areas if heavy rain is expected upstream. Flooding can happen downstream even if it is not raining hard directly over your head.
Do not drive through flooded roads. It is not worth it. You are not saving time if you flood your vehicle or need to be rescued.
If you have outdoor plans Monday through Friday, have an indoor backup. Even if it does not rain all day, storms may produce frequent lightning and very heavy rain where they develop.
Bottom line
Flooding risk is increasing across Texas.
Tonight into Monday morning, a band of heavy storms may set up near Central Texas, the eastern Hill Country, South Central Texas, or near the I-35 and Highway 281 corridors. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible, and a few spots could see 5 to 9 inches in only a few hours.
Monday and Tuesday bring more rounds of storms across the southeastern half of Texas.
Then Tuesday through Friday, tropical moisture tied to Cristina’s remnants may bring another multi-day heavy rain setup near the Texas coast and adjacent inland areas.
The name of the coastal system does not matter. The rainfall does.
Not everyone floods. Not everyone gets the highest totals. But where heavy rain repeats, flooding could become a real problem quickly.
Keep an eye on radar, river gauges, stream gauges, local alerts, and road conditions. Mother Nature is trying to throw a tantrum, and we need to pay attention.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also get local forecasts, alerts, radar, daily Texas Weather Roundups, and live coverage in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.
The 24/7 Texas Storm Chasers live weather stream is available on YouTube, in the Texas Storm Chasers app under the articles tab, and on the homepage of TexasStormChasers.com.
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