Write a new simple attractive title based on the title from NWS issues outlook: Historic El Niño might equal wet trend in Valley and dont use quote marks

The National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley office has released its latest three-month outlook, which indicates that summer isn’t done despite what most of us might wish.

The NWS noted a “slight lean” in the forecast toward hotter-than-normal conditions for September through November, with the greatest confidence in September being hotter than normal. Meteorologists are less sure about October and November, since a wetter pattern could develop, according to the NWS, which noted that October and November are two of the fastest cooling months of the year, “where average temperatures fall the fastest from the beginning to the end of the month.”

Let’s hear it for October and November.

Meteorologists said it’s a toss-up for September-November in terms of conditions being drier than normal, wetter that normal, or just plain normal.

“September’s precipitation odds are also a toss-up and could see a mix of wet and dry, before conditions potentially turn wetter later in the season,” according to the NWS. “A very strong, potentially historic, El Nino makes the case of a wetter pattern developing as early as late September, but more likely by October into November.”

Meteorologist said there’s low-to-medium (20%-50%) confidence that things will turn wetter later in the season. If the pattern does flip wet, flooding —possibly significant — could be an issue thanks to monsoonal showers and thunderstorms in October and November.

Climatalogically speaking, September through mid-October is typically the wettest time of the year for the Valley and deep South Texas.

“A very strong El Nino is in full swing and is on pace to become historic,” according to the NWS. “Recent history has shown that a fast transition to a strong to very strong El Nino typically results in a hot and dry mid- to late summer, followed by a dramatic turn towards a wet autumn with average to near-average temperatures over the Valley/deep South Texas.”

It’s still possible, however, that El Niño’s rainmaking capacity will be offset by very warm global sea surface temperatures and a persistently strong negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which would favor a drier pattern, meteorologists said.

The PDO is a naturally occurring, long-term climate pattern affecting temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and related weather patterns. A negative PDO indicates warm temperatures in the central North Pacific and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the waters off North America’s western coast. Positive PDO is the opposite. Typically, the pattern toggles between positive and negative every 20-30 years.

August, now in the rear view mirror, was a lot like July in terms of “persistent rain-free weather, intense heat and wind,” which fueled strong evaporation rates resulting in deepening, expanding drought conditions across the region, the NWS said.

Across the region as of last Friday, more than three-quarters of the Valley was under a Moderate Drought designation, with 20% of the region under Severe Drought, including much of Cameron County and southeastern Hidalgo County.

“This included the highly populated areas such as Brownsville, Harlingen and Weslaco in the mid- to Lower Valley,” according to the NWS.

The Moderate Drought designation covered much of Hidalgo, Willacy, Kenedy, central Brooks, northern Starr, western and southern Jim Hogg, and northern Zapata counties, meteorologists said.

“This included cities such as McAllen, Edinburg, Raymondville, Sarita and Falfurrias,” the NWS said. “Until the rains come, expect dryness/drought conditions to worsen and expand in the days ahead under this persistently hot and dry pattern. Extreme Drought conditions are likely by early September in Cameron if dryness persists, with (Severe Drought) expanding farther inland.”

Record to near-record low combined water storage levels at Amistad and Falcon international reservoirs are expected to continue, meaning further restrictions on agricultural and municipal water usage, meteorologists said, noting that there’s still a chance of relief from the Pacific Ocean.

“A recurving eastern Pacific tropical event could provide some assistance to one or both reservoirs by October,” the NWS said.

For now, wildfires are a growing concern due to many weeks of hot/dry weather, plus abundant fuel after precipitation during April-June.

“Over the past month, the combination of dry fuels, breezy conditions, and borderline low relative humidity … values have led to borderline elevated fire weather conditions,” meteorologists advised. “A 365-acre wildfire occurred in western Brooks County on July 26, and a nearly 1,000 acre wildfire a few miles away in early August.

“Until the rains come, expect for wildfire concerns to continue in September. This secondary wildfire season will come to an end in October should the weather pattern turn wetter.”