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The National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande office has released its latest three-month outlook, which calls for — brace yourselves — hotter and drier conditions than normal for August through October, with some caveats.
The greatest confidence for hotter-than-normal weather covers the August-September chunk, according to meteorologists, who said October is harder to pin down since things could turn wetter, which would affect temperatures.
The NWS said it expects Heat Risk to range from Moderate to Major — with pockets of Extreme Heat Risk — for August-October, mainly due to the persistence and accumulation of overnight heat.
Meteorologists predicted a drier-than-normal pattern to persist through at least mid- to late September, leaving open the possibility of a wetter weather pattern developing in late September and especially October due to a “strong to very strong El Niño.” September through mid-October is typically the wettest time of the year for South Texas and the Valley.
July, however, was so hot and dry that drought conditions have come roaring back after being tamped down by widespread precipitation in the spring and early summer.
“Despite the rains that fell April-June to reverse the previous long-term drought, July’s persistent rain-free weather, intense heat and wind — aiding strong evaporation rates — have allowed for the re-emergence of drought conditions across the region,” meteorologists said.
According to the NWS, as of July 28, more than three-quarters of the region was designated Abnormally Dry, with 30% designated under Moderate Drought.
“The Moderate Drought included areas as far south as Brownsville westward to Weslaco, McAllen and Edinburg, and northward into northeastern Starr and central/eastern Jim Hogg counties,” meteorologists said. “Expect for dryness/drought conditions to worsen and expand in the weeks ahead under this persistently hot and dry pattern.”
The NWS expressed medium confidence (30%-50%) of Severe to Extreme drought conditions by late August into September.
Concerns about the spread of wildfires have likewise reemerged in deep South Texas thanks to the hot/dry conditions and “ideal fuel” following the April-June rainfall and subsequent vegetation growth.
“In fact, the past week or so, the combination of dry fuels, breezy conditions and borderline low relative humidity values have led to borderline elevated fire weather conditions,” meteorologists noted. “A 365-acre wildfire occurred in western Brooks County on July 26. Expect for wildfire concerns to continue or worsen in August-September. This secondary wildfire season could come to an end in October if the weather pattern turns wetter.”
El Niño, meanwhile, is in high gear and expected to become strong or very strong in August and settle in.
“Recent history has shown that a fast transition to a strong-to-very-strong El Niño typically results in a hot and dry mid to late summer followed by a dramatic turn towards a wet autumn, with average to near-average temperatures over the Valley and deep South Texas,” meteorologists said.
The NWS outlined the primary concerns for August-October as including continued hotter-than-normal temperatures with accompanying Heat Risk, deepening and expanding dryness and drought conditions across the region through September, and wildfire concerns continuing or increasing during August and September.
Also, if October does turn wet, “flooding from monsoonal showers and thunderstorms could become an issue,” the NWS said.
Another top concern is continued record to near-record low water storage levels in Amistad and Falcon international reservoirs, upon which Valley communities and agriculture heavily depend.
“This means continued limits on agricultural and municipal water use for parts of the region,” meteorologists noted.
With Atlantic hurricane season 2026 a dud so far in terms of bringing much needed rain to reservoir watersheds, there’s a chance — by no means certain —that the Pacific could provide relief in the event of a westbound storm turning back and heading east, which can happen.
“Note that a re-curving eastern Pacific tropical event could provide some assistance to one or both reservoirs by October,” according to the NWS.
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