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By Daniela Capistran, Reporter
MCALLEN, Texas — Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Antonio Garza sees a continent navigating “rolling uncertainty” surrounding the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), yet remains bullish on the long-term economic momentum and integration driving South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Garza shared his perspectives during a recent virtual discussion hosted by Cynthia Sakulenzki, president and CEO of the Rio Grande Valley Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. The wide-ranging forum covered Mexico’s domestic political landscape under President Claudia Sheinbaum, cross-border security dynamics, trade negotiations, and political outlooks ahead of upcoming elections.
Garza, who currently serves as a senior advisor at White & Case in Mexico City, brought a unique local and diplomatic lens to the conversation. Before his ambassadorial appointment under President George W. Bush, the Brownsville native served as Cameron County Judge in the 1980s, Texas Secretary of State, and a member of the Texas Railroad Commission.
Domestic Stability Meets ‘Unknowns’ in Mexico
Opening the discussion on Mexico’s internal climate, Garza described the economic baseline under President Claudia Sheinbaum as generally solid, highlighting macroeconomic stability, manageable inflation around 3.5% to 4%, and modest growth projections between 1% and 1.5%.
“Last week I had the opportunity to sit with a group of U.S. Treasury officials and the leadership from eight to 10 of the larger financial institutions in the country,” Garza noted. “I was actually struck with how positive they were on the dialogue that they had with the Sheinbaum administration on issues of economic growth… They were mildly surprised on the positions that she had taken with respect to energy and the need to attract investment.”
However, Garza pointed out that market observers remain cautious regarding political and structural “unknowns,” specifically proposed judicial reforms involving the popular election of judges and initiatives impacting media and regulatory oversight. Despite those concerns, Sheinbaum maintains strong popularity and a capable governing team, granting her executive latitude ahead of Mexico’s midterm elections in 2027.
Trade Policy and Cross-Border Security Intersect
Turning to bilateral affairs, Garza emphasized that cross-border security dynamics continuously shape the backdrop of trade negotiations under the USMCA framework.
He cited high-profile security developments over the past year—ranging from coordinated intelligence operations that successfully targeted cartel leadership like CJNG chief “El Mencho” in Jalisco, to friction points surrounding U.S. intelligence presence in Chihuahua and high-profile diplomatic visa revocations.
“Most of us in the bilateral space have gotten used to the notion that every time the parties sit down, everything is on the table—if not explicitly, at least in the hallways or at least in the background,” Garza explained.
Regarding the USMCA, Garza noted that while the agreement was not automatically extended for 16 years during recent review sessions, ongoing trilateral discussions signal constructive engagement among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
“The expression I used is ‘rolling uncertainty’ because we’re not going to get that permanence of a 16-year extension,” Garza said, adding that annual reviews serve to manage uncertainty down while North American partners work to position themselves against global competitive pressure from China.
RGV Economic Synergy and Strategic Growth
Addressing the direct impact on South Texas, Garza praised the evolution of the Rio Grande Valley from isolated municipal entities into a cohesive, interconnected metropolitan corridor.
“One of the things that I’m constantly impressed with as I move around the Valley… is the pace of growth and the density of investment,” Garza said, referencing heavy industrial expansion surrounding the Port of Brownsville, commercial aerospace activity driven by SpaceX, and growing logistics infrastructure across Hidalgo and Starr counties. “The economic situation seems to suggest a real kind of merger—that we are increasingly a metropolitan area in the Valley, and I think that’s good.”
Sakulenzki echoed those sentiments, pointing to regional initiatives aimed at presenting a unified front.
“All four counties are trying to work together and make it one region, one voice,” Sakulenzki said. “Because what benefits McAllen will benefit Rio Grande City… if one city succeeds, everybody succeeds.”
Garza offered a cautionary note alongside his optimistic economic outlook, urging local leadership to protect the region’s environmental, cultural, and historic assets—such as ecotourism, birding habitats, and historic sites—against unchecked development.
“Growth is good, but I think we have to manage the impact of growth in a way that we don’t lose sight of our other assets,” Garza warned. “If we get this wrong, there will be things that will be damaged that can never be replaced.”
Political Continuity and Private Sector Advocacy
On the broader political horizon, Garza suggested that while U.S. congressional shifts could elevate senior border representatives like U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, core elements of U.S.-Mexico relations will maintain structural continuity regardless of political cycles.
“Whichever way the elections go, we’re going to have some continuity,” Garza said, citing bipartisan alignment on North American supply chain integration and competition with China.
Closing the forum, Garza emphasized the critical role local business organizations play in shaping federal and state policy, urging chamber members to maintain direct communication with policymakers.
“As we’re going through the USMCA negotiations and discussions, the role of the private sector and the chamber is critical in terms of advocacy,” Garza concluded. “If they’re not reminded of the local issues and the impact on people that are living right there in their districts, it won’t be a priority.”
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