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Nearly three-fourths of Texas is back in drought, the heat dome reestablishes this weekend, and fire danger climbs again. Your Texas Weather Roundup for Friday, September 11, 2026.
THE WEEKEND
Hoping for dry weather this weekend? You’re probably getting it. Less active outside East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Gulf Coast, and maybe parts of far West Texas and the Panhandle.
The heat dome reestablishes for a couple of days, bringing more sinking air, hotter temperatures and lower rain chances. South winds gusting over 15 mph in the afternoons, so we’re watching fire danger.
DROUGHT MONITOR — 74% OF TEXAS
Rain from Edouard made some helpful change across Southeast and East Texas. For most folks, not a thing.
After a very dry August and triple-digit heat galore, 74% of Texas — nearly three-fourths of the state — is back in drought.
Localized pockets of extreme drought across South Texas, North Texas and Texoma. Widespread extreme to exceptional drought continues across Northwest Texas, the Panhandle and West Texas.
Based on the next week’s forecast, it isn’t going anywhere.
TROPICS
Nothing. The Atlantic and the Gulf remain quiet and dormant, with no indications that changes this week.
FIRE DANGER
Today: generally Moderate statewide, with pockets of Low where rain fell in the Panhandle yesterday, plus far West Texas, the Big Bend and the upper Gulf Coast.
But High to Very High shows up across South Texas, the Rio Grande Plains and the Rio Grande Valley into the Coastal Bend.
Saturday brings Moderate to High across a large section of Texas. Sunday, High is expected across a majority of the state.
THE PATTERN — AND NO FALL IN SIGHT
The main jet stream stays well to our north, common in summer, thanks to the upper-level ridge sitting close enough to Texas this weekend to keep rain chances down.
Next week it sets up over the southeastern US, which is why — outside sea breeze activity — the highest rain chances look to be out west.
No big dips in that jet stream yet, nothing to bring rain or a fall preview. Nothing in the next seven days suggests it.
For those of you thinking a big happy cold front is coming: you’re dropping to the 90s. Was that the front? Welcome to Texas. Mama Nature can be a troll.
RAIN TOTALS
Through 7 AM Wednesday the 16th, the best chance is along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and maybe parts of East Texas with scattered pop-ups, then back into the Panhandle, West Texas and the Borderland.
Most of the state isn’t expecting substantial rain over the next five days outside a lucky afternoon pop-up. If you get one, congratulations.
Next week, rain chances continue across parts of the Panhandle, along the Texas-New Mexico line south into the Borderland, Trans-Pecos, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and maybe the Big Bend. Sea breeze stays active daily near the coast.
FLASH FLOOD OUTLOOK
Monday, WPC is highlighting localized flash flooding with heavy rain across the western and northern half of the Texas Panhandle, extending toward the Trans-Pecos and Borderland.
Tuesday that continues and extends farther east across far West Texas and the Panhandle, plus more of the Big Bend and Davis Mountains.
TEMPERATURES
Today, low 90s in Southeast Texas and the Golden Triangle. The humidity will be obnoxious, so don’t expect it to feel cool — assuming 90 was ever cool. The rest of the state, including the Panhandle where we had a day or two of cooler air, is back into the 90s with triple digits.
Tonight, 62 in Dalhart up in Dallam County. That is nice. 69 in Alpine. The rest of the state stays in the 70s, which means it won’t cool off quickly in the evening. 80s in the urban heat islands of the Texas Triangle down into deep South Texas.
Saturday actually gets worse: 105 in Childress, Big Spring and Abilene, 102 in DFW and down I-35 through Austin and San Antonio, 104 in Del Rio, 100 in El Paso and Amarillo — and 109 in Zapata.
Sunday is the same, mostly 90s to triple digits, continuing through early next week. We might see a little cool-off in the Panhandle by Tuesday with more cloud cover and rain — 93 in El Paso and Amarillo, 86 in Dalhart. Everyone else, 90s and triple digits unabated.
Conserve water where you can. Stay cool, use sunscreen. Back Monday.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Hot Again This Weekend
0:57 Weekend Outlook
1:44 Drought Monitor: 74% of Texas
2:47 Fire Danger This Weekend
3:30 The Pattern & No Fall in Sight
5:19 Rain Totals Through Wednesday
5:51 Flash Flood Outlook Next Week
6:18 Temperatures
8:07 Member Shoutouts
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