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The National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley office has released its three-month outlook for July through September.

To no one’s surprise, it predicts a hotter-than-average weather pattern for the three-month period, with heat risk expected to be moderate-to-major for the most part. You can thank the heat dome/ridge that has already worn out its welcome even though it only recently arrived.

NWS said the dome/ridge is expected to be situated primarily to the north, with heat favored over the West, the Rockies and the Plains, the South, and even the Midwest and East Coast through summer.

“While the heat ridge will primarily be to our north, it will remain strong,” meteorologists said. “The precise proximity of the heat ridge to deep South Texas will be key as that will determine how hot and how strong evaporation rates will be through the summer.”

Those same meteorologists are anticipating a drier-than-normal pattern through at least mid-September, though with the possibility of occasional sea breeze/monsoonal showers and thunderstorms.

“Forecast confidence on the precipitation pattern decreases after mid-September, as the pattern could potentially turn wetter late summer into the fall,” according to NWS.

Among the reasons for this potential shift as a moderate-to-strong El Nino and plain old climatology, meteorologists said, observing that September and October are normally the region’s wettest months of the year.

Because of all the rain that fell across the Valley April into June, drought and wildfire concerns should be limited through mid-September, according to NWS. In fact, drought conditions have been eliminated in the region since those beneficial rains, meteorologists said.

“Brush country will be most susceptible and favored if any drought or wildfire concerns were to emerge,” NWS said. “Again, the location of the heat ridge will be key. If dryness continues through September, drought and wildfire concerns could begin to increase in the fall.”

So keep your fingers crossed for a soggy September-October.

Sadly the heavy rains in April-June did little or nothing to bring up water levels in Amistad and Falcon international reservoirs, which the Valley heavily relies on.

The low water levels at the reservoirs equal continued limits on agricultural and municipal water use, according to meteorologists.

“Confidence remains near certain … that total combined storage at Amistad and Falcon will stay just above, or near record lows, through September,” according to meteorologists. “Steady to slightly lower storage levels are expected to continue through (July-September). Water supply restrictions will continue for some, and may be needed for others as we move through the summer season.”