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The rain over Easter weekend was undoubtedly needed. However, overall rainfall totals across Central and South Texas stayed relatively low, with only 0.83 inch of rain recorded in San Antonio over the four days of April 2-5.
So far in 2026, the Alamo City has recorded 2.73 inches of rain, which is nearly 4 inches of rain below average for the year to date. Since Sept. 1, the city is running more than a foot of rain behind the climate-normal for that period. To start chipping into that deficit from normal, we’re going to need a more sustained weather pattern shift.
Thankfully, weather models continue to show a more active pattern developing as we move into the next couple of weeks, with storm chances likely to increase significantly by the end of this week and into the weekend. Here’s what you can expect.
A beautiful, cool morning is expected across the region Wednesday, as San Antonio temperatures will hover in the mid-50 through 8 a.m. under partly cloudy skies. Temps will rise rather quickly, reaching the lower 70s by noon.
By Wednesday afternoon, expect highs to reach 80 degrees in the San Antonio metro area, near average for April 8. Humidity levels will also be noticeably higher than what we’ve experienced so far this week, as southeast winds carry moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the region.
A few showers are possible along the Texas coast by the afternoon, with chances stretching into the Rio Grande Valley. San Antonio, however, is expected to stay dry, with overall rain chances only at 10% or less.
As atmospheric moisture rises to end the week, so will rain chances. San Antonio will encounter a 30% chance of rain on Thursday, with chances increasing to near 50% by Friday. A few storms could become strong, however widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Temperatures will stay warm, with highs generally expected in the upper 70s to low 80s.
By the weekend, a broad area of low atmospheric pressure is expected to move into the western United States, which will lead to an increased risk of severe thunderstorms through the southern Plains. On Saturday, the risk of storms looks to be centered over West Texas, but it will spread eastward to many other parts of the state by Sunday.
It’s too early to tell exactly where and when the highest impacts will be, but this weekend storm system will likely be capable of producing scattered large hail and damaging wind gusts through parts of the state. Stay tuned to expressnews.com/weather for daily updates as the exact details become clearer.
More opportunities for storms appear possible through the middle of next week as well. Over the next seven days, an inch to 2 inches of rain appear possible for San Antonio, according to the National Blend of Models.
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