Texas Weather Forecast: Weekend Rain and Travel Impacts Ahead
As we move past the first storm system, Texans should prepare for another weather event making its way into the state this weekend. Although calm weather conditions are expected today and Saturday, widespread rain, thunderstorms, and potential flooding are on the horizon for Sunday and Monday. This week marks one of the busiest travel times of the year, making it essential to stay informed about the weather developments.
Today and Saturday: Calm Before the Storm
Throughout Central and South-Central Texas, the weather remains quiet today, with only a few lingering showers. Fortunately, severe weather and flooding concerns are not anticipated. Expect mostly cloudy skies with mild to warm temperatures across the state.
Fog and Isolated Thunderstorms Expected on Saturday
Saturday morning could see areas of fog in southeastern Texas, particularly where significant rainfall occurred recently. As the day progresses, isolated thunderstorms may begin to develop, particularly from the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas, extending into the Borderland area. These early storms will serve as a precursor to the moisture surge from an upper-level storm system approaching from the west.
Sunday and Monday: Widespread Rain and Flooding Risks
The next significant storm system rolls in early on Sunday, with New Mexico already experiencing heavy precipitation by dawn. Rain and thunderstorms will travel from west to east across Texas, continuing into Monday. Multiple rounds of storms are likely, mirroring previous patterns experienced earlier this week. Nothern Texas is expected to see the heaviest rainfall.
Flash Flood Threat on Sunday (November 23)
According to the Weather Prediction Center, there is a scattered flash flood risk across regions like the Concho Valley, Northern Hill Country, Big Country, Northwest Texas, North Texas, and Texoma. With soils already saturated from recent rains, these areas are susceptible to swift rises in creeks and localized flooding.
Flash Flood Threat on Monday (November 24)
As the system progresses into Monday, the threat shifts eastward, placing areas in Northeast Texas, East Texas, and parts of North Texas at heightened risk. The Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas may also experience notable but lesser flooding threats.
Projected Rainfall Totals Through Wednesday
The Weather Prediction Center’s projections indicate significant rainfall from now until 6 a.m. on Wednesday. Expected totals include:
- 1–3 inches of rain in areas including the Concho Valley, North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas
- Possibility of locally higher amounts
- Scattered pockets of heavy rain across Southeast Texas
Given the saturated ground conditions and multiple storm events, localized flooding can develop rapidly, even if overall rainfall amounts are not extreme.
Severe Weather Potential for Sunday
On Sunday, stronger storms may develop, bringing potential threats such as:
- Localized damaging winds
- A brief tornado or two
- Small hail in isolated instances
The current setup resembles conditions observed on Thursday night, where rotating storms led to brief tornado warnings.
Travel Impacts: Stay Prepared
Travelers flying into or out of major Texas airports on Sunday and Monday should anticipate possible delays due to weather. Wet road conditions accompanied by heavy rainfall, street flooding, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and a low risk of severe weather may lead to travel disruptions.
Although widespread delays are not expected, periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms could result in temporary ground stops and complicate departure and arrival routes.
Temperature Outlook: A Shift from Warm to Cool
Today’s weather showcases a diverse range of temperatures across the state:
- 50s in the Panhandle
- 70s and 80s in Central and Eastern Texas
- 90s in the Rio Grande Valley
As the weekend progresses into early next week, temperatures will cool significantly, with highs ranging from the 60s to 70s statewide. Coastal and deep southern regions may still experience 80s.
By Tuesday, the arrival of a stronger cold front will usher in cooler temperatures, with highs dropping into the 40s across areas near Dalhart and Amarillo. This cooler air mass will push further south and east through midweek.
Thanksgiving Week: Cooler Conditions on the Horizon
The Climate Prediction Center indicates a preference for below-average temperatures throughout much of Texas for the week of Thanksgiving. A cold spell is expected to dip into the central United States, meaning that the warm temperatures previously enjoyed will be replaced with more seasonable late-November highs.
Looking Ahead
We will continue to monitor developments regarding Sunday and Monday as the system approaches. Expected updates will provide forecasts, radar tracking, and any necessary severe or flood alerts over the weekend. Following this storm, a quieter weather pattern is likely to settle in for several days, allowing for a safer travel experience as many head out for early Thanksgiving plans.
Stay informed about changing weather conditions, and travel safely!
