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After weeks of relentless heat with triple-digit temperatures, the Rio Grande Valley could see some relief from an elevated chance of thunderstorms beginning Thursday, September 17, and continuing into next week. However, the precipitation won’t do much to dampen the heat as high temperatures are expected to persist even though La Canícula — or the dog days of summer — is over.
According to the National Weather Service in Brownsville, there’s a “low to medium (20-50%) chance” of rain across the Valley beginning Thursday. Meteorologists with the Valley’s ABC affiliate, KRGV, characterized the precipitation potential as “hit or miss.” The chance of rain will ramp up on Friday, prompting forecasters to predict highs in the mid- to upper-90s.
While NWS meteorologists “expect that most areas will see … little or no rainfall,” areas that do see storms form could experience a wallop of weather.
“Rain amounts are expected to be low (less than 0.25 inches for most areas) but heavier showers and thunderstorms can cause locally higher totals along with some water ponding,” NWS meteorologists said on Facebook on Thursday morning.
Isolated pockets could experience “localized minor flooding,” as well as “frequent lightning” and stronger wind gusts in areas where rainstorms train, or repeatedly redevelop over the same area, according to a NWS forecast discussion.
Further north, similar rain chances in the Coastal Bend could cause “minor coastal flooding,” according to the NWS office in Corpus Christi.
The Valley’s rain chances will drop to about 20% over the weekend, before picking back up to 27-37% on Monday, September 21, and Tuesday, September 22, respectively.
Despite the elevated rain chances, dangerous heat will persist across the Valley, the Ranchlands and the Coastal Bend. Going into the weekend, temperatures are still predicted to surpass the century mark, with highs across the Valley projected to reach 101 degrees on Saturday, 102 degrees on Sunday, and 103 degrees on Monday, according to NWS data. In the Coastal Bend, several communities in the inland counties, such as McMullen County, could also surpass 100 degrees.
Across deep South Texas, the combination of high temperatures and relative humidity will produce heat indexes — or “feels like” — of 105-115 degrees Fahrenheit. A ridge of high pressure settled over the region — and much of the continental United States — earlier this summer, leading to the first of several “extreme heat” danger warnings in mid-July, NWS Meteorologist Melissa Marcelloni told MySA on Thursday morning.
The NWS has characterized the prolonged heatwave as “brutal.” For McAllen, 2026 was the hottest summer on record, and the second-hottest for Cameron County’s largest cities, Brownsville and Harlingen.
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