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In some ways, the latest three-month outlook from the National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley office could be titled, “See Previous Three-Month Outlook.”

NWS meteorologists said they’re anticipating a “hotter than normal pattern” for May-July. It gets more difficult with each passing year to remember when that was not the case, though it has certainly happened. July 2021, for instance, was an unusually cool month, relatively speaking.

“While mainly low to moderate Heat Risk is expected through the first half of May, higher level Heat Risk (major to extreme) is expected to pick up beginning late May into June amid the potential for a building ‘heat dome,’” according to the outlook. “Heat Risk could peak in July.”

Early-season heat (afternoon temperature between 95 and 110) could develop as early as late May through early June, with Heat Risk most prevalent in June-July, according to the NWS.

Valley residents have in recent years become well acquainted with the dome, also known as “La Canicula,” a high-pressure, atmospheric heat-trapper often stretching from southwestern Texas, southeastern New Mexico and the Mexican states of Coahuila and Chihuahua into deep South Texas during the summer.

Heat domes also tend to stave off any tropical systems that may develop and attempt to take aim at the Valley during Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from July 1 to Nov. 30, and that’s bad news for the international reservoirs on the Rio Grande that the Valley depends on for water.

In part due to the impending return of El Nino, “rainfall odds remain a toss-up,” the NWS said.

“The uncertainty in rain events is highest through June,” forecasters said, who noted that beneficial rains in April eased, but did not erase, the drought.

The NWS said most of the region is in the moderate to severe drought category, one notch below the severe to exceptional drought conditions that existed in late March/early April.

“Fire weather concerns have been reduced after recent beneficial rains in April led to substantial green-up across the region,” meteorologists said. “If rainfall production through June is limited, higher temperatures and evaporation rates could increase the threat for wildfires later this summer, potentially beginning in July.”

With the return of El Nino, meteorologists anticipate a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. That in combination with the heat dome makes it even less likely Amistad and Falcon reservoir watersheds will see the rain necessary to begin bringing water levels — currently at or near historic low levels — up again.

This means continued limits on water use for agriculture and municipalities, the NWS said.

However, as meteorologists often note, “it only takes one” major tropical storm to turn things around in a hurry and potentially pose a threat.

Forecasters don’t expect a repeat of the historic rainfall/flood event of March 26-28, 2025, but still advised Valley residents to keep an eye on the potential for severe storms possibly localized flooding during spring and the transition to summer.

“Texas is known as a ‘state of perpetual drought broken by the devastating flood,’” the outlook notes.

“Despite the ongoing drought, if the pattern turns wetter, showers and thunderstorms could result in instances of heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Any showers or storms that develop could produce severe weather with damaging winds, large hail, and/or tornadoes.”