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A tropical weather situation in the Pacific Ocean appears poised to make an already relatively soggy June in the Rio Grande Valley even soggier.
According to Lead Forecaster Joseph Tomaselli of the National Weather Service Brownsville/RGV office, Tropical Storm Cristina was off the coast of El Salvador early Wednesday morning and forecast to move inland, weaken to a tropical depression and eventually dissipate over Guatemala.
However, the remnants of the storm — specifically deep tropical moisture — will emerge over the Bay of Campeche before turning west toward Mexico, deep South Texas and the Valley, which will be on the northern edge of this tropical moisture blob, he advised in a NWS bulletin Wednesday.
“The deep tropical moisture will arrive in deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley … on Saturday,” Tomaselli said. “Precipitable water, or a measure of how ‘juicy’ the atmosphere is, will reach a relatively high level of 2.5 inches on that day. This high precipitable water, caused by the deep tropical moisture, will fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday.”
“Precipitable water” measures the depth of rainfall at the surface if all the water vapor within a vertical column over a given location turns to rain. Precipitable water of 2.5 inches means the potential for up to 2.5 inches of water on the ground in that location. The vertical column is normally measured up to 300 millibars (metric air pressure units) or about 30,000 feet above the surface.
“Locally heavy rainfall, resulting in flood advisories or even flash flood warnings, cannot be entirely ruled out on (Saturday),” Tomaselli advised. “The moisture may linger within our region through the weekend and into the start of the new work week to produce a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms during that time period.”
The deep moisture could get even deeper on Tuesday, pushing precipitable water values near 2.6 inches for deep South Texas and the Valley, he said. Locally heavy rainfall, flood advisories and flash flood warnings can’t be ruled out for Tuesday either, Tomaselli said.
“Overall, for the period of (June 15-19), the Climate Prediction Center forecasts an above normal probability of precipitation for deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley,” he advised. “This period of wet weather is the result of the deep tropical moisture leftover from Cristina interacting with daytime heating and low pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere.”
Meteorologists have “medium to high” confidence that deep tropical moisture from the remnants of Cristina will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend and into early next week, according to the NWS.
The NWS advised residents to clear debris from drainage ditches, cleanouts and canals to help limit “nuisance flooding,” especially in areas with poor drainage, and warned residents to drive especially carefully and check the windshield wipers, tires and brakes on their cars.
“Driving will be difficult in downpours (bands), with near zero visibility at times,” according to meteorologists.
The NWS advised residents with weather radios or weather apps to set them on “alert” in the event of flood warnings.
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