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The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Storm Prediction Center has issued a tropical storm watch for portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts for the low pressure system it is now calling “Potential Tropical Cyclone One.” As of 10 a.m. on Tuesday, June 16, the National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm watch from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. Sargent is located approximately 75 miles southwest of Houston. Also of 10 a.m., the weather system was located about 65 miles southwest of Corpus Christi with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
“The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday,” an advisory from the National Hurricane Center reads. “Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land.”
The weather system, which dumped more than six inches of rain in Weslaco, in the Rio Grande Valley, on Monday, now has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, and a 60% chance of formation over the next seven days. Previously, on Sunday, June 14, the National Hurricane Center had put the odds of formation at just 20%. If the weather system does organize as it moves eastward, it would be the first tropical storm of the 2026 season.
“Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portiods of the Florida Panhandle,” Eric Blake, a senior hurricane specialist with the NHC, said in a forecast advisory on Tuesday morning.
As much as 2 to 4 feet of storm surge could impact the coast from Port Bolivar in Texas to Morgan City in Louisiana,. Coastal flooding could be exacerbated if the storm surge occurs at high tide, Blake said. Further, the storm could span “a tornado or two” along the Upper Texas coast Tuesday night.
“Southern and eastern Texas, southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days, which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding,” forecasters said.
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