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The late-week cold front sweeping across Southeast Texas on Thursday evening won’t bring noticeably cooler weather. In fact, while spring cold fronts often bring stormy weather, this one will come through dry.
Despite Thursday’s approaching cold front, weather conditions will feel pretty similar to other days earlier this week.
Morning temperatures in the middle and upper 60s will climb into the mid-80s by afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue, though southerly winds likely won’t be as gusty as they were Wednesday when gusts reached 30 mph or higher.
Thursday’s daily record high to beat is 86 degrees, set in 1986.
Laredo and McAllen in South Texas could see their first 100-degree day of the year Thursday.
Winds sweeping out of northern Mexico are fueling the year’s first shot at triple-digit heat in these communities by funneling warm desert air into the Rio Grande Valley. With little cloud cover and only a weak cold front approaching, that air mass heats efficiently under the February sun, allowing temperatures in places along the Texas border to climb well above normal for winter.
Reaching 100 degrees in February isn’t unheard of for these far South Texas towns. Laredo has hit 100 degrees six times in February, with the earliest occurring on Feb. 18, 1986. Normally, Laredo doesn’t reach 100 degrees for the first time until mid-April.
Long-range models are cautiously optimistic that rain chances may finally return to the Houston area next week.
The upper-atmospheric ridge of high pressure keeping temperatures in the 80s through the weekend might finally weaken or shift east by midweek. This could finally open the atmospheric stage up to showers or thunderstorms by Wednesday, with a greater confidence in showers by the end of the week.
It’s far too soon to speculate on how much rain could fall, but after weeks of warmth and dryness, even modest rain chances would be welcome across our increasingly parched corner of the state.
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